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Friday, October 30, 2020
👉Stock Market : High Volatility before The Crash -- The Day of Reckoning is approaching
👉Stock Market : High Volatility before The Crash -- The Day of Reckoning is approaching
Stocks overpriced; political instability in Washington; Commercial real estate with zero occupancies; apartments with rent forbearance and no evictions allowed; bonds with puny interest rates, muni bonds awaiting local bankruptcies; and a highly volatile stock market ready to crash; technology stocks in an enormous bubble. The real estate bubble is blowing in a huge way too,it is completely ridiculous in so many places. Even the far-out outskirts are becoming super inflated now. We’ll even have a full blue moon on Halloween for the first time in 76 years tomorrow!
So who you going to call before Armageddon!
Gold, Silver, farmland, and hard assets.
Bubble wealth in the stock market is purely an illusion because it requires that no one sells (this is why volume is so low). If even a small percentage start selling, the price plummets.
It's great to feel like you're making money until you inevitably lose a lot of it.
That's a high price to pay for a ticket. These strategists believe the market will be driven by hopes and other emotions rather than logic and reasonable value.
The problem with waiting to buy into 20% downturns is that everyone rushes in with the buy the dip mentality. I am not buying that.As it does always seem to work until it doesn't work one day, and we see a 90% drop.
The market's a toilet alright but still needs a lot more flushing.
The bubble junky is about to be forced to go cold turkey, puking and convulsing all the way into a dry heave induced coma. Protect yourselves people.
Sell into some sort of safe harbor after you've made a few bucks. It's not mandatory to ride the elevator down to the bottom. Don't hang on and lose all gains.
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Many of you have asked me where they can buy silver and gold bullion.
You will find in the description box the links where you can buy American Silver Eagle, Silver Bars, or Rounds. I highly recommend that you start stacking some Silver Bullion for the future.
The stock market is in a bubble; a crash is inevitable.
The current 0% interest rates, stimulus, deferral, bailouts, student loan moratorium, eviction bans, foreclosure extend, and pretend economy cannot go on forever. The day of reckoning will come one day.
You know something is up when the beloved top tech companies knock it out of the ballpark, and they promptly sell-off.
Waiter, another round of stimulus, please, on the Fed.
The casino is on fire. Play if you like. I’ll be prepping garden beds for next spring.
I expect a significant correction for three reasons.
#1. P/E of the SPX index is 34.
#2. Unemployment and reduced consumer demand due to pandemic.
#3. Political instability due to election.
After the election, there will be talks about recounts and fraud, and uncertainty is bad for the market. Short term anyway.
I see a squeeze pattern in the weekly ;we're coming to a pivotal point. I believe at that point, we could see a sell-off if things go a certain way regarding this election as far as fighting over the results go, and there's a huge probability of that.
The S&P 500, while up 4.9% thus far this year, has dipped 5.3% since September 2nd.
The S&P is only five, not 500 stocks, and they singlehanded took out the highs. Hundreds of stocks are still 15% off their highs.
Even more significantly, the Nasdaq 100, which covers the largest stocks in the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite, is off 6.5% since that date.
The U.S. economy is not the stock market and vice versa. Ignoring overseas strength is a major oversight. The so-called FAANGs (together with Microsoft) derive about half -- and in some cases even more of their revenues from outside The US. Not to mention that the lockdown has benefitted the giant tech companies’ sales and profits. No wonder the Nasdaq Composite 100 Index, which is dominated by big tech companies, is up about 26% this year.
It's called a Blind Fool can see we are in a major Bubble. I won't put a single dime in this joke long term till after the election or a 30-40% correction.
I told you guys two weeks ago in here to sell your tech stocks. I hope you got out before today. I said that they were about to get trashed during these investigations. I am sure that 98% of the people stayed in because they were lazy about taking action.
The Bigs just torched the markets. They know what is coming. Tech is going to get hammered from this point on after Nov 3rd regardless of who wins.
Expect an attack on stocks next week. Stocks are taking hits because of lockdowns in Europe and the coming second wave.
The Fed has realized it cannot go on. Destroying the Dollar means destroying themselves.
The Fed is out of this game.
And it shows on the charts.
The next round of QE will literally be direct payments to citizens. They are already setting up a system.
If the fed does one more QE on assets, it will prove to be ineffective and have the opposite effect, and it knows that. It's begging the treasury to act, but congress won't allow it.
It's over for the bull market inequities. The fed pulled the plugin in July.
The position as the world Reserve Currency has been devastating for the US in the long term. It has allowed massive over-spending and militarism with few to no consequences. The resultant over-valuation of the currency for 50 years has meant the hollowing out of US manufacturing and damage to farm and other industries.
The damage has not only been economic. We also have enormous social damage from this stuff, including the massive social distortions created by running Negative Real After Tax interest rates for many decades. The result is profligate, wasteful, over-consuming without the values that make a society sustainable.
The Creature From Jekyll Island is dying. They always do. Fiat currencies propped up by central banks make decisions that always end badly for both the banks and those who are invested in them. The lifeboat to some semblance of safety this time will be the lifeboat used time and again: Gold and Silver. History rhymes for a reason.
Wall Street should get a reform too, maybe by discontinuing some things like the derivatives gambling racket. The thing is kind of a Big Casino, and they can chart this and speculate that and have a great time spending time and money placing bets at the roulette wheel. But ultimately a lot of it borders on dishonest and is probably due to a top-to-bottom housecleaning. Institutional rot can set in just about anywhere; in the corporate boardroom, City Hall, Congress, the UN, G-whatever. Wherever. Place your bets, place your bets. Investing is a betting game. Some people have a big stack of capital to play with and play the market; others, not-so-much. And when it goes bust, the government hands out fresh poker chips. The national debt will probably continue to increase, but the stock market may come under critical scrutiny and be localized to where if you're outside the US, you need to go find a local casino to play at.
To say that what is about to happen is a collapse implies that it is unintended. There is nothing unintended about what is unfolding currently. It's all going to plan, and it'll be a whole lot worse than anyone thinks.
I love it when the stock market analysts put their charts and numbers together and talk knowledgeably about the stock market future. Never in their discussion is the factor of investor emotions as if it doesn't exist as part of the equation.
If no one ever bought a new all-time high, there would never be any new all-time highs. The market would flatline on the first day it opened and never move higher again. One would have to be an idiot to buy stocks before market crashes.
Stocks suffered massive declines in the fall of 2008. That, of course, was an election year when the presidency shifted from Republican to Democratic. Stocks didn't bottom until March 2009, when it was clear that President Obama would bail out GM and an agreement to bail out the banks was working. Charts today show that stocks are very much above a very long-term trendline. On the only two other occasions that have occurred since 1793, the market has corrected down sharply. Economic, political, and social/health circumstances have rarely been direr than they are today. The VIX fear index will be sky high before this ends.
There has to be a major correction at some point as the market is above the trend line more now than it has been since the great depression. In addition, the VIX is trending up at a significant rate. Normally the VIX tends to run around 15; in the February crash, it zoomed up to over 80; it now is around 33 and going up. A strong short term indicator something is happening. This may spur the MOMOs on to reinvest for the spring back - but it may cause the big institutional investors to move more money into cash. The extremely large number of mortgage defaults and outstanding rent payments (higher than 2008) - not to mention the extension of accounts receivable further into the future by most companies (although any real data is extremely hard to get concerning broad payment of accounts receivables - the bankruptcy rate of small business indicates a significant increase in accounts receivables). We cannot paint a pretty picture until the pandemic ends, and business can restart. The longer the pandemic persists and grows, the more likely a major crash is going to happen.
A whole generation of investors has only known markets that go up, and every dip a buying opportunity. Wall Street brokers are there to cheer every day, and the Fed has its safety net ready just in case. These investors are not going to scare so easily. 1987 was not a true crash as the market recovered everything in 2 years, and that was the start of the buy the dip insanity that Maestro Greenspan spawned. 1929 was the true crash because it took the market 25 years to recover from that drubbing. 1989 Japan was a true crash because Nikkei has still not recovered after 31 years. A true crash will come, and it will take the Fed, Wall Street media, and the Politicians all by surprise because when it comes, all the tricks will fail.
I say let’s rip the bandage off. Not too many are saying current valuations are rational. I’ve been wary for the last four years. Taking profits regularly building up cash. I think it's wise to let the political turmoil play out, see what happens with the pandemic. Markets like stability. When this mess calms down, I see the companies who took this once in a lifetime opportunity to refinance long term debt and cut costs will profit big time. That’s the time I’ll get back in.
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